Thursday, December 04, 2025
Scary Chart of the Day: Over $3 Trillion in SOFR VOLUME
By: D. Heath, Editor, Chief Meme Investigator
Every day meme economists manage to unveil a new scary chart. I don't how they continue to find them. There must be a scary chart search engine out there. Scary chart you ask? You exactly know what I'm talking about! The beginning years of the chart are flat and uneventful, and then further along the chart a mysterious later date marks the initiation of hyperbolic growth or decline. Suddenly the values have exploded upward or downward, and meme economists tell you that this intense movement means something, something BIG. Today, there are viral images of SOFR Volume or Secured Overnight Financing Rate Volume spreading across social media. It works because few people outside of economics or finance have exposure to this financial indicator. So when viral images are being spread across social media of this supposed SOFR Volume it is easy to be menaced. The unfamiliarity of the subject, coupled with the drama of the chart adds to the fear. The meme economists never unveil and explain boring charts, just the charts with extreme ratios. Let's dive into whether the SOFR Volume is showing that you should dive out the economy.
What is the SOFR Volume?
SOFR and SOFR volume are the heartbeats of the overnight lending market. SOFR tells you the interest rate for borrowing overnight using Treasury securities as collateral. SOFR volume tells you how active the market is by revealing the total amount of borrowing activity or transactions that happens using SOFR-based loans or instruments, typically in the overnight lending market.
To damper the hysteria, I'm would like to offer a short yet non-dramatic story to explain SOFR Volume.
A Day in the Life of an Overnight Trader
It’s just past 7 p.m. and I’m sitting at my desk in the trading floor of a large investment bank, a place where the lights are always on and the buzz never really stops. I’m an overnight trader, which means I handle the part of the market where institutions borrow and lend money overnight. My job revolves around SOFR—Secured Overnight Financing Rate—and its volume.
I take a deep breath. Another busy night ahead. The U.S. Treasury market is still buzzing after hours. My job? To keep an eye on the overnight repo market, where SOFR is determined, and make sure our bank can get the liquidity it needs while paying the right rate.
The Opening Move
I open my screens to see the latest data. I’m scanning multiple charts, but one stands out: SOFR volume.
SOFR, remember, is the interest rate that banks use to borrow cash overnight with Treasury securities as collateral. But what I’m really focused on is SOFR volume, the total amount of borrowing happening in the market. This tells me how active the market is.
Tonight, the volume is pretty strong—about $800 billion. That’s good news for me. High volume means the market is deep with liquidity. Lots of lending and borrowing are happening, and the rate should remain stable. The more transactions, the less risk of any single institution moving the rate dramatically.
But I’ve seen nights where that volume drops down to $200 billion. Those are the nights I don’t sleep well. If the volume’s low, it means there’s less borrowing going on, and that makes liquidity tighter. In other words, it becomes harder to get loans at the usual rate. And if I can’t get a loan at a reasonable rate, it could cost my bank a lot more money.
The Borrowing Game
I take a call from my counterpart at another bank. It’s 7:30 p.m. now. He’s asking if I need to borrow overnight, and I tell him I’ll need a couple hundred million. The rate I’ll pay is tied to SOFR, and we both know the current SOFR rate will reflect the volume of transactions in the market. If the volume stays high, I’m looking at a relatively low rate. If it drops, I might have to pay a little more.
"How’s the volume looking tonight?" I ask him casually.
“Solid," he replies. "Looks like we’re hitting around $800 billion. Shouldn’t be any issues.”
That’s a relief. At least for tonight, we’re in a good position. I’m in the clear for now.
Watching the Clock
It’s now 10 p.m. and I’m tracking every movement in the overnight market. The minute-to-minute fluctuations in SOFR volume are key. I’m watching the market like a hawk, making sure the rate is staying in line with expectations. If the volume drops suddenly—say, under $500 billion—I know I’ll have to adjust quickly.
At 11:30 p.m., something catches my eye. SOFR volume just dropped by about $50 billion in the last 30 minutes. It’s a slight dip, but it’s enough to signal a tightening of liquidity. I make a mental note to adjust our borrowing strategy just in case we need to pay a bit more to lock in funds for the night.
The Midnight Check-In
It’s now midnight, and the SOFR volume is holding steady at $780 billion. The borrowing rate remains fairly low, and it seems like liquidity is still healthy. It’s been a relatively calm night—nothing too out of the ordinary. But I know this can change quickly. We’re about 7 hours into this 24-hour trading cycle, and there’s always the chance that something unexpected could cause volume to dip.
I log into a meeting with senior traders to discuss our strategy for the next day. There’s chatter about SOFR again. The markets have been a bit unpredictable lately. The volume had been hovering around $600 billion over the past few days, which was lower than usual. That drop in volume could signal more cautious behavior in the financial system, especially if uncertainty creeps in—like a potential rate hike or some market shock. It’s our job to stay ahead of these shifts, and the volume helps us predict what's coming next.
The Endgame
By 3 a.m., the volume seems to have stabilized. It hasn’t dipped below $750 billion, and the SOFR rate remains predictable. At this point, I’m breathing a little easier. I’ve locked in my overnight borrowing at a good rate and even managed to secure some extra liquidity for the day ahead. The market’s calm, the volume is solid, and I can rest easy knowing the system’s in good shape.
But tomorrow, I’ll be back at it, watching the volume closely. Every day brings new dynamics, new risks. The volume of SOFR transactions—whether it’s rising or falling—tells me what’s really going on beneath the surface of the financial markets. It’s my job to read that volume and use it to make smart decisions for my bank.
Reflection
As I finally pack up for the night, I think about the role SOFR volume plays in everything. It’s more than just a number—it’s the lifeblood of overnight lending. It tells me how much trust there is in the system, how easy or hard it will be to get money, and how much risk the market is willing to take on.
In this world, where millions, sometimes billions, are borrowed and lent overnight, SOFR volume is like a pulse. If it’s healthy, everything’s running smoothly. If it drops too low, it’s a signal that something’s off, and we need to react fast.
I close my computer, grab my coat, and head out the door. Tomorrow, I’ll do it all over again. But for tonight, the market’s calm—and I’ve done my part.
Seems like a pretty uneventful day for the overnight day-trader, almost if there is minimal drama associated with the SOFR Volume. But now things are different according to the meme economists, the SOFR Volume was at $3.41 trillion. Maybe there is drama, maybe the overnight trader should alert his team that the economy is destined to melt down tomorrow.
Let's get back to that trader:
It’s just after lunch, and I’m back at my desk.
The day’s been moving fast—one minute I’m reviewing the latest Treasury auction results, the next, I’m tracking the daily SOFR volume. But today… something’s off.
I see it. $3.41 trillion.
What the hell?
Normally, I’d be seeing numbers in the $1.2 to $1.5 trillion range—anything higher than that feels like a big day, and we start paying closer attention. But this? This is way beyond typical market movement. $3.41 trillion is huge. It’s a surge. Something’s going on.
I check my screen again to make sure I’m reading this correctly, and I get the same number. My heart rate kicks up a notch. I immediately pull up my liquidity charts and check the broader financial news to see if I’ve missed anything major. I don’t want to be caught off guard.
What does this mean for me?
First things first: I’ve got to know why the volume is so high. If this is a policy-driven event, like the Fed stepping in to inject liquidity or something related to a massive Treasury bond auction, it could just be a blip. The market responds to those events. But if this spike is happening without a clear catalyst, I know that something deeper could be brewing.
I glance over at my desk partner. "You seeing this?" I ask him, and point at the number on my screen. He stares at it for a moment, his eyebrows knitting together.
“Yeah, that’s not normal. We should be on high alert.”
I agree and I am. I’m really concerned about liquidity right now.
When you’re looking at SOFR volume, you're really looking at market liquidity. High volume usually means there’s a lot of borrowing and lending at SOFR rates, and things are running pretty smoothly. But today? The volume spike is giving me a gut feeling that things could be tighter than usual.
What I don’t want to see is that, even with all this volume, the SOFR rate starts rising too quickly. If it spikes, it could mean that banks are scrambling for liquidity, and there's not enough to go around. That’s when you get into trouble. It could be a signal that too many institutions will soon by fighting over a limited supply of overnight funds.
Right now, though, the rate is still holding steady. That’s good. But the higher the volume, the more likely the rates could start to move if liquidity thins out too quickly.
Is it just me, or is this volume a red flag?
I think back to a few years ago when we saw big spikes like this during the market upheavals. If this volume is truly out of the ordinary, it could indicate a liquidity squeeze coming down the road. A lot of borrowing means a lot of financial institutions are on edge, and that’s not something to take lightly.
I’m running through different scenarios in my head. Could this be related to a massive surge in collateral being used in repos? If so, then the system’s using up a lot of the safe collateral—like U.S. Treasury securities—and it might not be as easy to borrow at these rates tomorrow.
I make a quick decision to pull in some extra liquidity just in case. I don't want to wait for the market to show signs of strain before I act.
But should I panic?
Look, $3.41 trillion is certainly an outlier. But volume alone doesn’t tell the whole story. If rates stay stable, this could just be a one-off event where the market is, for whatever reason, a bit more active than usual.
However, if this volume is driven by uncertainty or a policy move—and it comes with rising SOFR rates—that’s when I’ll really start to worry. If liquidity starts tightening, I need to be prepared to get into the market early to lock in some funding, or the borrowing costs might jump.
So, for now, I stay vigilant.
I keep watching the volume and the rate. If the volume keeps rising or if the rate starts creeping up faster than expected, I’ll know it’s time to reassess. This spike is unusual, but I’ve seen things like this before. The key is to keep your head cool, understand the context, and stay ahead of the market.
For now, I’ll stay glued to my screens. At the end of the day, the market will show its hand, but I need to be ready. One thing's for sure—there's something bigger going on beneath the surface.
Nice to see that our overnight trader is not in panic mode, but is on alert. The trader's alertness will help this trader gather and process important data, without being menaced and panicked into regrettable financial decisions.
Want to see the drama for yourself? Check it out here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SOFRVOL#
Wednesday, December 03, 2025
Is silver's 90 percent surge a sign of systematic risk worse than 1929!?!
By: D. Heath, Editor, Chief Meme Investigator
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| Image by Kevin Schneider from Pixabay |
Prices are surging, AI stocks are surging, and now apparently even silver is surging. With all these economic indicators surging, there is little reason to be surprised once investors' blood pressures and the amount of time Americans spend worrying about household finances follow the surge trend. This is definitely not the type of synergy that beckons optimism for the economy! Need your blood pressure to surge a bit more? According to various meme economists, the fact that silver has surged nearly 90 percent in 2025 and is in the midst of experiencing its best year since 1980 is not simply a sign that all pockets of the U.S. economy are overheated but resounding evidence that economic doom is slated to besiege America's humble wallets. Meme economists are warning that it will not just be regular doom, but dystopia doom that transcends 1929's Great Depression.
Has the blood pressure rocketed off the charts? Feeling faint? Well, don't bring out the smelling salts just yet, because the price movements of silver are simply too ambiguous to declare an earth-shattering Great Depression. There are many factors that affect silver's price, including domestic and global economic conditions, investor sentiment, inflation expectations, and please don't forget the market speculation being propelled by tons of AI videos that endlessly pump out ill-advised financial advice like a derelict slot machine.
1. Silver as a Safe-Haven Asset
Like gold, silver is often regarded as a safe-haven asset, meaning that during periods of economic uncertainty or financial stress, investors may flock to it to protect wealth. So, a surge in silver prices can be an indication that investors are worried about something, whether it be inflation, financial market volatility, geopolitical tensions, fears of inflation, or the broader economy. This is a keyword to not ignore: worry. So much of economics is irrational, driven by emotion as opposed to rationality. As worry surges, emotions will begin increasingly to take over decision making, and these emotions and resentments will maneuver people away from traditional assets and into nontraditional assets. Never forget that the .com crash stoked the Beanie Babies mania, when cute and cuddly bean bags were perceived as more trustworthy assets then stocks.
So when all the worried investors buy into silver and gold in times of crisis or uncertainty all at the same time, it becomes a sort of confirmation bias. Now that these worried individuals all bought in at the same time, these commodities will perform well as people seek out tangible and nontraditional assets to hedge against currency risk or financial instability. This high performance only confirms to them that the economic is indeed distressed, not that there is simply a growth in distressed investors.
2. Economic Signals That Could Be Behind the Surge:
Inflation Concerns: If investors expect rising inflation, precious metals like silver often benefit because they retain their value in the face of eroding currency purchasing power.
Market Volatility or Bearish Sentiment: If stock markets are experiencing turbulence or downward pressure, silver could rise as a counterbalance.
Interest Rates: Low or negative real interest rates (adjusted for inflation) make non-yielding assets like silver more attractive compared to cash or bonds.
3. Not Necessarily a Recession Indicator
While silver’s rally might be interpreted as investors preparing for an economic downturn, it’s not a direct or clear indicator of a recession on its own. Yes, the silver vendors want you to believe that a recession is inevitable, and the solution is more silver. This is not denying or confirming that a recession is nigh, it is about being a savvy investor and understanding how a fearful market can be manipulated by predatory actors. The connection between silver prices and recessions isn’t as direct as some other economic signals, such as yield curve inversions. Silver can rise due to:
Speculative behavior or high demand in certain market conditions.
Supply issues in mining or production.
Industrial demand: Silver also has a significant industrial use in electronics, solar panels, etc., so a demand surge in those sectors could drive prices up as well.
4. Context Matters:
Post-Pandemic Effects: After the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a surge in economic stimulus, monetary easing, and fiscal policies that led to a lot of market uncertainty. Silver could have surged as part of those broader trends.
Global Events: In times of global tension like the Russia-Ukraine war or potential trade conflicts, precious metals often see a rise in value as a hedge against uncertainty.
5. Silver’s Historical Context
1980 Peak: The last time silver saw a similar spike in its price was in 1980, driven by geopolitical issues and economic factors like the oil crises and high inflation. Once again, it would be reckless to deny or confirm whether a recession is on the horizon, but this example provides some proof that silver can surge without a Great Depression being imminent. The fact that silver's best year since then mirrors a similar historical context doesn't mean a recession is inevitable, but it does hint at a period of heightened risk and uncertainty.
1980 vs. Today: In 1980, silver’s spike was partially driven by the Hunt brothers' attempt to corner the silver market, which isn’t quite the case today. This highlights the importance of understanding the specific causes behind silver’s rise today compared to other periods.
6. Recession vs. Market Conditions
A surge in silver could reflect a broader nervousness in the market, but it doesn’t automatically mean we are headed into a recession. For example, it could indicate market volatility, economic imbalances, or inflation concerns, which might lead to an economic slowdown rather than a full-blown recession. Still troubling, but not a reason to line the pockets of those in the silver syndicate who want to profit from your surge in worry and fear.
Verdict: No, silver's 90 percent surge is not a sign of systematic risk worse than 1929.
While a 90 percent surge in silver is noteworthy, it's not necessarily a direct signal of an impending recession. It could be a sign of market uncertainty, inflation concerns, geopolitical risks, or other factors that can drive precious metals higher. It's essential to look at the broader economic indicators, such as GDP growth, unemployment rates, and other market data so that you can make the most rational choice.
If you're concerned about a possible recession, it might make sense to track other signs, like yield curve inversion, slowing economic growth, or rising unemployment. These indicators would offer a more concrete picture of whether the economy is actually heading into a recession or whether it's just a period of volatility and uncertainty.
Saturday, January 17, 2015
Sorry Teen Brands, You were Overthrown by YouTube
Personality tends to direct personal style and cause teens to gravitate to certain trends. Bethany Mota in a haul mentioned when talking about a dress, "that is literally me. It's perfection ...When I saw this I kind of squealed." Bethany Mota, who has an affinity for sunflowers and mac n cheese, describes her personal style as "definitely bohemian, so it has that laid-back kind of free-spirited vibe and it's also girly and very comfortable” and “Once in a while … a little edgy." With more Instagram followers than Vogue, Elle, Marie Claire, Glamour and Cosmopolitan combined, her personality aligns with brands such as Forever 21 (mentioned first), Urban Outfitters, H &M and then Aeropostale.She probably doesn't have much appreciation for the austere preppy look. As a YouTube guru she needs to showcase a brand whose new styles almost sparkle on camera, this is amateur lighting not a fashion shoot! Blair Fowler's energetic personality, southern aura and sophisticated taste lured her to the colorful and lacy Forever 21.
- One YouTube guru can inspire a cascade of videos for a particular brand. Then YouTube influences other social media platforms such as Tumblr and Instagram.
(and yes, I do realize I'm making a bold proclamation...)
Let's check out the numbers (as of January 17, 2015):
"forever 21 haul" About 166,000 results without quotes About 584, 000
"h&m haul" About 40,000 results without quotes About 324, 000
"topshop haul" About 19, 200 results without quotes About 254, 000
"urban outfitters haul" About 18,400 results without quotes about 190, 000
"american eagle haul" About 8,400 results without quotes About 78, 800
"aeropostale haul" About 7, 910 results without quotes About 49, 800
"aero haul" About 1,190 results without quotes About 32, 900
"abercrombie and fitch haul" About 1,530 results without quotes About 18, 800
"abercrombie haul" About 3,830 results without quotes About 60, 500
Top Forever 21 shopping haul/ Forever 21 hauls according to view count: Some are exclusive to Forever 21 ... the main attraction or is given predominance in the headline ( as of January 17, 2015... some YouTube gurus have more static viewership than others)
1. Fall Clothing Haul! Forever 21, H&M, Urban Outfitters & more!
Published on Sep 16, 2013: 2, 266, 518 views
Bethany Mota : 636,420,791 overall channel views
2. Good Morning America Forever 21 Haul Part 1
Uploaded on Mar 18, 2010: 2, 248, 615 views
4. Forever 21 Haul
Uploaded on Dec 15, 2009: 1,758,827 views
juicystar 07 (Blair Fowler): 259,053,840 overall channel views
5. Summer Clothing Haul! ♡ Forever 21, Urban outfitters & Target
Published on Jun 4, 2012: 1, 455, 364 views
Bethany Mota : 636,420,791 overall channel views
Courtney Lee: 3,916,484 overall channel views
I excluded two that were titled in another language.
3. Big Haul de la Folie - Guess, Hollister, Victoria's Secrets, Steve Madden... CONCOURS FERMÉ
Published on Mar 7, 2014: 183,751 views
Sandrea26France: 53,287,718 overall channel views
4. SALE ! HAUL SALE ! [zara, h&m, b&bw, only, hollister]
Published on Jul 21, 2014: 159,544
Olciiak: 2,930,877 overall channel views
5. Haul: Forever 21, Hollister, Victoria's Secret + more
Uploaded on Jan 4, 2012: 151,766
cutesygirl09: 15,552,390 overall channel views
Thanks for reading!
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Saturday, June 07, 2014
Will New gTLDS be Profitable Investments? Will they Sell and Scale?
To not openly acknowledge this and tout new gltds as a new innovation that is supplying assumed customer demand, which has vastly evolved, is quasi fraudulent. There are several obstacles that need to be confronted before presuming new gtlds will scale and be consistently used by millions and not just thousands of stale investments.
Also ambitious individuals with technical skills have cushy and prestigious career opportunities that sharply diminishes the need to embark on the perilous startup journey. In the 90's, the tech industry was still blossoming but now they are billion dollar industries that are extracting the top tech talent from the job and start-up market, and possible customers for new gtlds.
Claiming new gtlds will have widespread adoption also ignores the predominance of social media site such as Tumblr. Before there were active fan sites for celebrities now it is official Facebook pages and Twitter. Before there were personal bloggers and now there's Instagram where people can showcase their lives like a glossy lifestyle magazine. Social media takes a huge chunk out of key demographics that would build visible and active websites on new gtlds.
Stability and long term use is also required to add prestige and trust to new gltds. If popular websites simply move on to dot com once they save enough money, like del.icio.us moved on to dot com, that uplifts and reinforces dot com as the pinnacle. This behavior influences other webmasters with new gltds that it isn't ideal for building a permanent platform but new gltds are just a starter platform. If malicious webmasters are disproportionately attracted to the preemptive meaning from new gltds this could compromise the aggregate trust in new gltds. Dot com namespace is able to absorb this predicament due to the trustworthiness of other websites that call dot com home. However new gtlds may not be able to absorb this threat and lose credibility. Just like co.cc was dropped from Google's search due to prevalence spammy sites, new gtlds could drop from user's trust.
